Дългове, които ще тежат дълго

Заемите за справяне с COVID кризата изкачват глобалната задлъжнялост до нови все по-неустойчиви рекорди

Темата накратко
  • Правителствата теглиха ударно заеми през 2020 г., за да потушават пожарите в икономиките си, фирмите и домакинствата също продължиха да задлъжняват.
  • Така глобалният дълг се очаква да достигне внушителните 365% от БВП в края на годината.
  • Приемливо решение на проблема все още няма, а централните банките едва ли скоро ще спрат печатниците на пари.

Заемът не е много сложна концепция. Дори и тригодишно дете може да схване идеята - давам скъпоценната си играчка и чакам да ми я върнат след време (обикновено най-много минута). Вярно, като добавим лихва, нещата малко се усложняват, но не прекалено.

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9 коментара
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  • 3
    ss avatar :-P
    • - 1
    • + 4

    Има решение - златен стандарт + хипер инфлация ...

  • 4
    gmt38698399 avatar :-|

    20% saving rate means the economy is headed towards 1929 debt crisis scenario or hyperinflation..
    25% saving rate to GDP for EU and 15% for USA means that this money are used for paying the huge household and firms debt and do not go in someone’s income and hence GDP declines. There is stress from covid 19 that increases fixing of balances that will persist after the vaccine and there is huge segment of Americans and Europeans with huge debt and savings bellow 1000 USD. So the Governments of USA and EU will increase correspondingly some 15-20% budget deficits in 2021 to provide incomes that debt servicing cancels as Dalio and Koo show as long as saving persist or 1929 debt crisis GDP depression follows. This debt will be monetized by FED and ECB as otherwise yields will increase. For 15% saving rate in USA 5% goes to investment, but 10% is servicing huge debts of households and firms to shrink their balances. 10% monetized debt per year over 3 trillion in 2020 is some 25% to GDP monetized debt in a year only, that is 70% sure hyper inflation as Peter Bernholz shows that 40% monetized debt to GDP is 100% sure hyperinflation in a year. Debt in 2021 will be 2 trillion for savings and 2 trillion to stimulate to 2019 level of GDP after double dip lock down recession so even higher probability of hyperinflation in 2022. That is either Germany hyperinflation scenario or USA depression scenario, if debt is not monetized, of 1929 will follow if savings rate persist now. In Germany case a pension was enough for a metro ticket in 3 years , and in 5 years all money mass from the beginning of hyperinflation is enough for a bread.

  • 5
    gmt38698399 avatar :-|

    QE , stocks bubbles, inflation how they actually work.
    - Bubbles in stocks and housing when burst cause balance sheet recession. Similar to Japan 1980s, or 2009 financial crisis, or now. To fix balance sheets losses , the agents stop to borrow for several years as Richard Koo nicely explains. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YTyJzmiHGk
    - When stopped borrowing , the money multiplier declines for several years. After fixing balance sheets, agents resume borrowing , money multiplier increases and M2 growth causes inflation again as Peter Bernholz shows. https://www.google.com/books/edition/Monetary_Regimes_and_Inflation/u8TiBwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=Monetary +Regimes+and+Inflation+History+Economic+and+Political+Relationships+Peter+Bernholz&printsec=frontcover
    - So big M0 will affect M2 at some stage and cause big inflation. Monetarism is not dead, inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
    - QE does not affect real economy as agents do not borrow at any interest rate. Long-term low interest rate do not affect output. QE only affect asset prices and from there for 10% increases in equity 1% consumption wealth effect.
    - At this level of stock prices only the 1% buy stocks as there is 90% chance for ½ reduction in stocks prices vs 10% chance for 10% stock increase that is objectively very risky bet. Rich buy out of loss aversion from benchmark from profits they wanted. I took the profits away as I convinced the middle class ,with 10 years similar blog posts, not to participate in stock bubble as sure cheating by FED ECB and financial intermediaries so the 1% loses with expensively bough stocks. They cannot sell stocks as there is no liquidity on the stock market and prices fall fast for offered stocks.
    - a deleverage in 2009 by now would have surpassed the initial gdp with low debt levels and without any problems. Now a financial crisis is pending with monetary policy targeting stock index.

  • 6
    gmt38698399 avatar :-|

    - EU and USA are between the rock and the hard place – either hyperinflation or financial crises now
    - if USA goes for 2 trillion monetized debt, as Biden wants, now they will increase monetized debt this year from 15% to 25% to GDP, that is from 25% to 75% sure hyperinflation. At 40% monetized debt a year, hyperinflation is 100% sure. In this case they postpone financial crises but go in a year in 75% sure hyperinflation that will end USA and EU civilization.
    - in the other case EU expects 1.4 trillion bad loans with 2nd lock-down, and some bankrupted banks that is financial crises as ECB states. USA also will go with non-bank bad debt soon without monetized debt. There are high US mortgage delinquencies as well. “Financial crises often happen after large buildups of household and corporate debt, and around the same time as large falls in asset prices” Romer
    - financial crises with zero bound and high debt to gdp is some 10 % gdp decline by Romer. Another 10% at least from deleverage so great depression is sure.
    - WB Carmen Reinhart has some papers on high inflation and yield floor for decades to decline government debt. Can you imagine what this means for GDP decline with multiplier.

  • 7
    gmt38698399 avatar :-|

    European Union will fall apart in 2022. The German populists will win elections in late 2021, the french populists in early 2022 and both vote to stop 750 bn EU debt issuing program with grants for Italy and Spain. Without support Italy and Spain will leave EU in 2022.
    - ECB will do a little bit less than 2 trillion program of QE to monetize EU debt till 2022. That is some 50% sure hyperinflation, so they will stop in 2022 and Italy and Spain yields will rise to new sovereign debt crisis. Debt of Italy will be close to 200% to GDP in 2021 with TARGET2 debt included. So sustainable - debt primary budget surplus will lead to recession. LTRO is also some ECB subsidy deposits at -1% interest rate by some 50% of deposits in Italy and Spain added to TARGET2 by some further 50% of deposits. There is no need ECB to print some 2 trillion QE to keep Italy yield low in the short run. instead, EU may buy some 50 bn Italian ans Spanish debt only. Similar to USSR fall apart with hyperinflation? Are the policymakers accountable only in-front of the 1%? Italy, Greece will default on sovereign debt so their part in 750 billion EU debt will be paid by other countries.

  • 8
    gmt38698399 avatar :-|

    EU banks are exposed to bad credits from CEE in banks, they own. In a classification by IMF , the countries from Cyprus to Italy were world champions in bad credits. That reduced the capitalization of EU banks from some 200bn to 15bn. 15bn means that there are expectation of profits from 3bn per year over 10y period to minus 20 bn per year for such market capitalization as only positive expectations count for stocks evaluation and variance is big for average of yearly expectation of minus 17bn. There will be a new wave of bad credits with end of support for covid 19 as only for Bulgaria the moratorium bad credits are 15% for now. Check Austria banks and telecoms for money laundering in ,same as Greece bankrupted banks (actually 4th and 5th Austrian banks also bankrupted) ,CEE region. Italy and Spain big deposits run abroad to escape potential bankruptcy of banks. There are by some 500 BN TARGET2 loans and similarly by some 500 BN EUR LTRO by ECB. Both are loans that substitute by a trillion left deposits for It and Sp.

  • 9
    tsonkooo avatar :-|
    • + 1

    Загробиха ни, за 30 години напред и още ще има.

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